http://gametheory101.com/courses/international-relations-101/
If a declining state cannot observe a rising state's proliferation plans and the declining state would prefer to launch preventive war, then the states must act unpredictably or risk being exploited. As a result, preventive war sometimes occurs even though the rising state lacks a nuclear program. Although the result is rational yet appears ridiculous in retrospect.
Click here for the original article: http://www.yale.edu/leitner/resources/papers/DebsMonteiro2011-01.pdf
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