Introduction to International Relations - What Causes Wars: An Introduction to Crisis Bargaining Theory

Why do wars occur? This lecture frames war as a deeper puzzle than it first may seem. We begin by establishing how, in principle, there should always exist settlements that leave both parties better off than if they fought a war. Thus, for wars to occur, there must be both a substantive disagreement between the parties and a bargaining friction that prohibits them from reaching such a deal. We then examine three common explanations. First is shifting power causing a commitment problem, a common issue today with China and Taiwan, in alliance politics, and central to nuclear proliferation. Second is asymmetric information, which played a clear role in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The final mechanism is issue indivisibility, which appears reasonable but falls apart upon substantive interrogation. 0:00 Outline of Lecture 2:53 Varieties of Explanations for War 7:20 Why Examine at Rational Explanations? 19:30 Why Examine Unitary Actor Explanations? 23:48 Visualizing the Inefficiency Puzzle 34:33 Proving the General Applicability of the Puzzle 46:55 Why War Is a Two-Ingredient Recipe 51:15 Overview of Bargaining Frictions 53:16 Shifting Power and Commitment Problems 1:00:01 Application: PRC-Taiwan Relations 1:03:53 Application: The Gaza War 1:05:24 Application: NATO, Russia, and Ukraine 1:08:38 Application: Nuclear Proliferation 1:11:04 Application: Wars of Opportunism 1:13:53 Asymmetric Information and Miscalculation 1:23:16 Why Communicating Strength and Resolve Is Hard 1:27:12 Application: Putin's Gamble in Ukraine 1:33:02 Issue Indivisibility 1:38:05 Dividing "Indivisible" Goods 1:40:48 Side Payments 1:43:06 Wars of Succession 1:45:21 Conclusion The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and NATO visual information does not imply or constitute an endorsement. Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/): By Kremlin.ru: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62277 http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73995