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The Black Swan is a book about risk, by polymath, Nassim Nicolas Taleb. Black Swans risks that meet 3 criteria 1. Outlier - not expected from previous experience 2. Extreme impact 3. Explainable after the fact You can think of a black swan event as an Unknown Unknown. However, we do believe we could have predicted it… with hindsight Taleb gets the name, Black Swan, from a quote from Juvenal: "rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno" ("a rare bird in the lands and very much like a black swan") Black swan events arise from the limitations of our knowledge. We need to understand this, as part of our understanding of risk management. Taleb also identifies: - Grey Swans Known Unknowns - White Swans ... such an event has a major effect, but is compatible with statistical properties - it was a Known-Known with low but finite likelihood - indeed some may predict it with high levels of precision. Recommended Videos. Carefully curated video recommendations for you: Our Risk Management Playlist: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ck3eK945p90&list=PLsz8d8r2a995J2pzE1gifZoh8J0Ky7oZQ - What is Project Risk Management? ... https://youtu.be/QgALrPHrsk4 - What is the Cone of Uncertainty? ... https://youtu.be/QZHQv88kYgw - Risk Management - 5 Tips to do it right ... https://youtu.be/Q6JHsVEOVhM - Avoid Project Failure: 5 Top Tips ... https://youtu.be/wh_jooSEy4E For more great Project Management videos, please subscribe to this channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCMZfp1_wquyegVY9SoER0Nw?sub_confirmation=1 For all our great Project Management articles and resources, please check out the OnlinePMCourses website: https://onlinepmcourses.com/ For basic Management Courses - free training hosted on YouTube, with 2 new management lessons a week, check out our sister channel, Management Courses: http://youtube.com/c/managementcourses For more of our Project Management videos in themed collections, join our Free Academy of Project Management: https://onlinepmcourses.com/free-academy-of-project-management/ #RiskManagement #ProjectManagement #BlackSwan
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