MIT IDS.333 Risk and Decision Analysis, Fall 2021 - Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 3: Porcupine Graphs

MIT IDS.333 Risk and Decision Analysis, Fall 2021 Instructor: Richard de Neufville View the complete course: https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/ YouTube Playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLUl4u3cNGP62jwhTqp8_1kwrkDkxZhpQC This video introduced the notion of porcupine graphs, that illustrate the common phenomenon that experts in various fields find it difficult to adjust their forecasts to what is actually happening, and thus can be consistently biased over long periods. This video has been dubbed using an artificial voice via https://aloud.area120.google.com to increase accessibility. You can change the audio track language in the Settings menu. License: Creative Commons BY-NC-SA More information at https://ocw.mit.edu/terms More courses at https://ocw.mit.edu Support OCW at http://ow.ly/a1If50zVRlQ We encourage constructive comments and discussion on OCW’s YouTube and other social media channels. Personal attacks, hate speech, trolling, and inappropriate comments are not allowed and may be removed. More details at https://ocw.mit.edu/comments.