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I once lent $10,000 to a guy named "Sneaky Badness" based on a promise of 100% returns in 30 days. Spoiler alert: I never saw that money again. It was an embarrassing $10k mistake, but it taught me a crucial lesson about Law #7 from my book, 10 Laws of Finance: "Only worthwhile risks command incremental expected rewards." I’m Devon Coombs (CPA, MBA, ex-Google & Deloitte). In this video, I’m using my own financial failures to teach you the technical frameworks for balancing Risk vs. Reward. We’re moving beyond simple goal-setting and getting into the math of execution. Most people "gamble" on their careers and investments based on hope. Today, I’ll show you how to use Expected Value (EV) and Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) to stop gambling and start winning. In this video, we cover: 💸 The "Sneaky Badness" Story: How I lost $10k investing in a rave (and why the contract was illegal). 🏊 Expected Value Analysis: Why jumping off a roof into a pool is a mathematically bad decision. 🎓 Pricing Career Risk: Why "Average Salary" is a trap (History vs. Accounting degrees). 📉 The Startup Trap: Why your stock options might actually be worth $0 compared to a safe corporate salary. ⏳ The Time Traveler Toolkit: How to use Discounted Cash Flows to price your future. ⏱️ Timestamps: 0:00 - Law #7: Executing Your Goals 0:46 - My $10,000 Mistake (The "Sneaky Badness" Story) 3:45 - The Illegal Contract & The Lesson 4:55 - How to Calculate Expected Value (The Pool Jump) 6:25 - Career Risk Analysis: Degrees & Salaries 8:10 - Pricing Uncertainty with Discount Rates 9:15 - The Truth About Startup Stock Options 11:55 - Comparing Opportunity Costs 13:15 - Conclusion: Stop Gambling, Start Calculating About the Author: Devon Coombs is a CPA, MBA, and former finance leader at Google and Deloitte. He is the author of 10 Laws of Finance, a guide to mastering the technical and behavioral sides of wealth. #Finance #RiskManagement #CareerAdvice #ExGoogle #CPA #Investing #10LawsOfFinance 00:00 Introduction to Law Seven: Balancing Risk and Reward 00:34 A Personal Story of Risk: The Sneaky Badness Incident 03:18 Understanding Risk and Reward in Decision Making 04:40 Expected Value Analysis: A Framework for Decisions 06:40 Real-World Applications: Career Choices and Investments 11:36 Establishing a Discount Rate for Risk Assessment 14:56 Conclusion: Making Informed Risk Decisions
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