Methods 101 - Can polls tell us who will win on Election Day?

Can pollsters predict election results? We often hear a candidate is leading, trailing, or the race is tied. This is based on “horse race” polling, which estimates how much support candidates have, based on how people answer surveys leading up to an election. But accurately measuring the horse race is wicked hard. Our new video explores four reasons why. Chapters: 0:00 (Introduction) 0:33 (Challenge #1: Voters Change Their Minds) 0:53 (Challenge #2: Some Voters Are Unwilling To Share) 1:07 (Challenge #3: Increasingly Close Elections) 1:24 (Challenge #4: Uncertain Voter Turnout) 1:39 (Conclusion) Creative Director & Story Editor: Kimberly Arias Executive Producer & Story Editor: Sara Atske Research & Story Editor: Courtney Kennedy Animation Director: Fabian Tejada Design: Jesus Cardenas Video: Antonio Villaronga Sound Editing: Chris Mastellone Thanks to: Andrea Caumont, Nida Asheer, Ashley Amaya, Peter Bell, David Kent, Stacy Rosenberg, Shannon Greenwood, and Blythe Thomas ABOUT PEW RESEARCH CENTER Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world. It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research. Pew Research Center does not take policy positions. It is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts. RELATED RESEARCH Key things to know about U.S. election polling in 2024 (August 2024) https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/08/28/key-things-to-know-about-us-election-polling-in-2024/ WATCH MORE PEW RESEARCH CENTER VIDEOS / @pewresearch SUBSCRIBE TO PEW RESEARCH CENTER For our latest research, visit: https://www.pewresearch.org/ YouTube: ‪ / @pewresearch Instagram: / pewresearch Facebook: / pewresearch LinkedIn: / pew-research-center X / Twitter: https://x.com/pewresearch